Almost every polling agency had completed the ballot counting processes at around 3 pm local time, July 8. Trans Corp-LSI placed Yudhoyono-Boediono couple at top position with 60.81 percent; Mega-Prabowo, 26.38 percent and Kalla-Wiranto, 12.81 percent. The counting process that TV station Metro TV carried out showed that Yudhoyono-Boediono reached 26.32 percent; Mega-Prabowo, 26.32 percent; Kalla-Wiranto, 15.18 percent. Meanwhile, LP3ES placed Yudhoyono-Boediono on top with 59.82 percent; Mega-Prabowo, 27.62 percent; and Kalla-Wiranto, 12.56 percent.
One-Round Election: Quick Count
If the quick-count result is borrowed as an indicator to predict the final result of the presidential elections, then one-round election should apply.
Early analyses: SBY Wins
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, renowned as SBY, is way more popular than the Democratic Party, his party. SBY-Boediono pair is supported by a huge coalition nailed to the Democratic Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the United Development Party (PPP), the Justice and Prosperous Party (PKS) and the National Mandate Party (PAN). In addition to the five top parties, around 20 other political parties side with SBY and Boediono. In the quick count results, SBY managed to gain support from political parties to more than 60 percent.
There is certainly split vote between the choice made by political parties and the grass root. This is clearly seen from the votes obtained by JK-Wiranto pair of Golkar. The couple has 19.90 percent of popular vote and 22.32 percent seats in the parliamentary. Besides Golkar and Hanura, the pair is also propped by PKNU. However, the quick count process only provided the pair with 12-15 percent of votes.
Mega-Prabowo couple is capable of rising their votes from 20.20 percent of popular votes to 21.61 percent of parliamentary seats. Mega-Prabowo, formed by a coalition between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) and other seven political parties boosted the votes from 20.20 percent to around 26-27 percent.
The escalating issues on ethnicity and political stream in the past days prior to the election did not seriously affect the voters. So far, two regions were deeply upset of the issues such as South Sulawesi, the bases of JK-Wiranto, and Bali, the basis of Megawati Soekarnoputri and Prabowo.
The winning that the incumbent reached showed that voters tended to be conservative in making votes. They likely prefered security, avoided swing voting, were fond of stability and anxious of taking risk over a change.
Implication
What has the incumbent's winning implicated? First, the power ruling over the executive and legislative is consolidated. The SBY-Boediono coalition achieved 56 percent of parliamentary seats. As a result, SBY will have the ability to control the political process in the parliamentary. It can be seen as a way to establish a stepping stone for a political stability in the next five years.
Second, a new tense in the cabinet forming may appear due to the inclusivity of the coalition built. A fine capability in managing interest among coalition members should be had. SBY's choice of taking a non-party figure as his running mate would ease the problem.
Third, strong internal conflict in Golkar party after JK-Wiranto failed to win. This will trigger a group inside the party to challenge Golkar's leadership and overcome it. The issue will also influence the future of the grand coalition in the parliamentary, which was once proposed by Golkar, Hanura and Gerindra.
The government will be without Jusuf Kalla until October 2009. Kalla will not be convenient during his last days in the administration.
Fifth, the opposing parties may break. Golkar has never been an opposing party. Adding office seeker phenomenon, it will weaken the power of the opposing parties.
Rejodani, Wednesday, 8 July 2009, 3 pm local time.
--
AAGN Ari Dwipayana, lecturer at Social and Political Science Department of Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta.
Translated by: Bonardo Maulana Wahono
• VIVAnews
